Hello! It’s been awhile.
After a brutal couple of years, software engineering job postings are FINALLY ticking up again. This graph looks great! Fills me with optimism.
BUT, if you zoom out, we’re still nowhere near the COVID peak. 2021–2022 was a historic overhiring cycle due to increased demand for software in covid times, and extremely low interest rates making hiring very cheap. I don’t think we see a return to what that job market was like anytime soon (if ever).
That said, this is clearly a noticeable uptick in demand. Here’s my bull case for software engineering:
AI is making it dramatically easier to build software. One engineer can ship more, iteration cycles are shorter, and entire products can go from idea to MVP in weeks. This is already happening in the startup space and at the big labs like Anthropic.
At first glance, you’d think that means fewer engineers.
History suggests the opposite.
There’s an economic concept called Jevons Paradox: when technology makes a resource more efficient to use, total consumption of that resource often increases.
Steam engines became more efficient → we build more engines.
Cloud computing made compute cheaper → we used way more compute.
AI is making software cheaper and faster to produce → we will likely produce a lot more software.
If your competitors can ship 5x faster, you ship 10x faster. And that usually means hiring strong engineers who know how to ship.
My 2 cents: we are entering a new phase: leaner teams, higher expectations, more leverage per engineer, and rising demand for people who can actually build. Position yourself accordingly.
Arjay